Omg. Fomc paused. Do you advocate a hike? Monetary policy is iterative and frankly I believe it is too restrictive. But I don't think the Fomc did or said anything wrong this meeting. My criticism now is that they are too data dependent. It would be better if Powell came out now on the record that he thinks the Fed needs to lower rates very cautiously, at least if that is their outlook. That appears to be their stance but why not say so? And state that they plan on leaving monetary policy alone for now. I have to somewhat agree with you on the balance sheet. It was too big versus the economy. I thought QE was left on far too long after the pandemic. Once liquidity came back and the markets functioned it should have stopped quickly. Now QT has reached its sell by date. The Fed should just let the economy grow in nominal terms to right size the balance sheet when compared to the size of the economy. I thought this was the best approach to start with. Stop Qs. It is like being the sorcerer's apprentice. Use rates and regulation as your tools. QE/QT is too unreliable as a policy tool.
Restrictive? Really?! I think we would all do well to look up from the data and see what people actually do. Let me refer you to the Barrett-Jackson auction that took place in Scottsdale AZ, during January 2025. I watched a half-hour of the Friday auctions - not "Super Saturday". A Perry Mason style Lincoln Continental sold for $300k. Better still, close your eyes and just listen to the announcers. They can't believe the prices these illiquid, high transaction cost assets are bringing. Assets that have high carry costs like insurance and taxes, whose ongoing values are dependent upon the notion, that everyday they are deteriorating back to the minerals and chemicals that define them.
People depending on credit cards to support their lifestyle, I do believe find interest rates restrictive. The rest, I don't think so.
Real interest rates are currently historically. Mortgage spreads are high. Car loans are expensive. Bank loans or private credit loans to small business are expensive. An auction in Arizona is a slim reed....
If you look at real interest rates today, they are no higher than April 2024, as per the US Treasury website. When Treasury initiated the series (2000), real interest rates had a 4 handle. Not surprising at all for a 3 handle throughout history.
However, if your view of normal is the financial repression of the Fed over the past 10-years, then yes, anything without a minus sign is restrictive. Historically it is not so.
I agree, rates are "restrictive" for the majority of people in the US. But they are restrictive only because the price is too high. High because of the sheer stupidity of what Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell have done.
Can anyone tell me if this can affect XAUUSD
Omg. Fomc paused. Do you advocate a hike? Monetary policy is iterative and frankly I believe it is too restrictive. But I don't think the Fomc did or said anything wrong this meeting. My criticism now is that they are too data dependent. It would be better if Powell came out now on the record that he thinks the Fed needs to lower rates very cautiously, at least if that is their outlook. That appears to be their stance but why not say so? And state that they plan on leaving monetary policy alone for now. I have to somewhat agree with you on the balance sheet. It was too big versus the economy. I thought QE was left on far too long after the pandemic. Once liquidity came back and the markets functioned it should have stopped quickly. Now QT has reached its sell by date. The Fed should just let the economy grow in nominal terms to right size the balance sheet when compared to the size of the economy. I thought this was the best approach to start with. Stop Qs. It is like being the sorcerer's apprentice. Use rates and regulation as your tools. QE/QT is too unreliable as a policy tool.
Restrictive? Really?! I think we would all do well to look up from the data and see what people actually do. Let me refer you to the Barrett-Jackson auction that took place in Scottsdale AZ, during January 2025. I watched a half-hour of the Friday auctions - not "Super Saturday". A Perry Mason style Lincoln Continental sold for $300k. Better still, close your eyes and just listen to the announcers. They can't believe the prices these illiquid, high transaction cost assets are bringing. Assets that have high carry costs like insurance and taxes, whose ongoing values are dependent upon the notion, that everyday they are deteriorating back to the minerals and chemicals that define them.
People depending on credit cards to support their lifestyle, I do believe find interest rates restrictive. The rest, I don't think so.
Real interest rates are currently historically. Mortgage spreads are high. Car loans are expensive. Bank loans or private credit loans to small business are expensive. An auction in Arizona is a slim reed....
If you look at real interest rates today, they are no higher than April 2024, as per the US Treasury website. When Treasury initiated the series (2000), real interest rates had a 4 handle. Not surprising at all for a 3 handle throughout history.
However, if your view of normal is the financial repression of the Fed over the past 10-years, then yes, anything without a minus sign is restrictive. Historically it is not so.
I agree, rates are "restrictive" for the majority of people in the US. But they are restrictive only because the price is too high. High because of the sheer stupidity of what Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell have done.